2013 Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1 “all others” is favorite

Will the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner come from the mutuel field?  The people in this year’s pool #1 seem to think the winner will come from the mutuel field.

If you have not kept track over the last 14 years,  Animal Kingdom (2011), Mine That Bird (2009), Big Brown (2008), Smarty Jones (2004), War Emblem (2002) and Charismatic (1999) were Kentucky Derby winners who came from the mutuel field in the Future Pool. We recently did a blog about War Emblem in stud duty – see https://kentuckyderbytours.com/blog/2013/02/10/2002-kentucky-derby-winner-war-emblem-is-picky-breeder/

Even though six of the last 14 Derby winners (43 percent) came from the field, betting on “all others” is not the smartest wager to make since the payout is usually on the small side.

Last year, I’ll Have Another was a single entrant in Pool 1 and those fortunate to bet on the Doug O’Neill- trained colt were blessed with a $60.20 payout on a $2 wager. So in Pool #1 it paid to wager on I’ll Have Another.  On Derby Day at Churchill Downs, I’ll Have Another paid just $32.60.

Each Kentucky Derby Future pool offers $2 minimum win betting and exacta wagering, with the latter available in the form of $2 minimum straight exacta bets or $1-minimum exacta boxes and part-wheels. No scratches or betting refunds are permitted in the Derby Future Wager, but betting on an individual horse will be suspended immediately if Churchill Downs determines that an injury, illness or other circumstance revealed during the pool would prevent that horse from competing in the Kentucky Derby.

I wonder if any of the 2013 Kentucky Derby Tours participants have done any future pool wagering?  I guess we will find out when we get to the Derby.

Here are the final odds and expected payoffs for horse racings big Day on the first Saturday in May:

KENTUCKY   DERBY FUTURE WAGER 2013 Pool 1 – final odds and payoffs

 

# Wagering   Interest Morning   Line Day   1 Day   2 FINAL $2   WILL PAY
1 Capo   Bastone 30-1 99-1 71-1 58-1 $118.00
2 Code   West 50-1 99-1 80-1 56-1 $114.00
3 Delhomme 30-1 99-1 84-1 55-1 $113.20
4 Den’s   Legacy 30-1 99-1 99-1 77-1 $156.60
5 Dynamic   Sky 30-1 99-1 74-1 54-1 $110.00
6 Falling   Sky 30-1 99-1 99-1 99-1 $230.80
7 Flashback 15-1 22-1 15-1 12-1 $26.40
8 Frac   Daddy 50-1 99-1 82-1 68-1 $139.00
9 Goldencents 20-1 10-1 15-1 20-1 $43.40
10 He’s   Had Enough 50-1 86-1 56-1 50-1 $102.60
11 Itsmyluckyday 15-1 21-1 14-1 13-1 $28.80
12 Mylute 30-1 99-1 99-1 99-1 $249.20
13 Normandy   Invasion 20-1 28-1 19-1 15-1 $33.00
14 Overanalyze 15-1 67-1 44-1 33-1 $69.20
15 Oxbow 20-1 52-1 32-1 26-1 $54.80
16 Revolutionary 20-1 8-1 10-1 13-1 $29.00
17 Shanghai   Bobby 12-1 8-1 11-1 14-1 $31.40
18 Super   Ninety Nine 20-1 99-1 62-1 47-1 $97.20
19 Uncaptured 20-1 96-1 57-1 40-1 $82.40
20 Verrazano 15-1 7-1 9-1 11-1 $24.00
21 Violence 12-1 9-1 12-1 13-1 $28.60
22 Vyjack   (g) 20-1 99-1 74-1 49-1 $100.60
23 Will   Take Charge 30-1 99-1 75-1 61-1 $124.20
24 All   Others 9-5 6-5 7-5 8-5 $5.20

 

(g)   – gelding
Morning   Line odds by Mike Battaglia
Total   Wagering (final): $621,493 … Win: $481,632… Exacta: $139,861

 

 

 

Clairenmike

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