2013 Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1 “all others” is favorite
Will the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner come from the mutuel field? The people in this year’s pool #1 seem to think the winner will come from the mutuel field.
If you have not kept track over the last 14 years, Animal Kingdom (2011), Mine That Bird (2009), Big Brown (2008), Smarty Jones (2004), War Emblem (2002) and Charismatic (1999) were Kentucky Derby winners who came from the mutuel field in the Future Pool. We recently did a blog about War Emblem in stud duty – see https://kentuckyderbytours.com/blog/2013/02/10/2002-kentucky-derby-winner-war-emblem-is-picky-breeder/
Even though six of the last 14 Derby winners (43 percent) came from the field, betting on “all others” is not the smartest wager to make since the payout is usually on the small side.
Last year, I’ll Have Another was a single entrant in Pool 1 and those fortunate to bet on the Doug O’Neill- trained colt were blessed with a $60.20 payout on a $2 wager. So in Pool #1 it paid to wager on I’ll Have Another. On Derby Day at Churchill Downs, I’ll Have Another paid just $32.60.
I wonder if any of the 2013 Kentucky Derby Tours participants have done any future pool wagering? I guess we will find out when we get to the Derby.
Here are the final odds and expected payoffs for horse racings big Day on the first Saturday in May:
| KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER 2013 Pool 1 – final odds and payoffs |
| # | Wagering Interest | Morning Line | Day 1 | Day 2 | FINAL | $2 WILL PAY |
| 1 | Capo Bastone | 30-1 | 99-1 | 71-1 | 58-1 | $118.00 |
| 2 | Code West | 50-1 | 99-1 | 80-1 | 56-1 | $114.00 |
| 3 | Delhomme | 30-1 | 99-1 | 84-1 | 55-1 | $113.20 |
| 4 | Den’s Legacy | 30-1 | 99-1 | 99-1 | 77-1 | $156.60 |
| 5 | Dynamic Sky | 30-1 | 99-1 | 74-1 | 54-1 | $110.00 |
| 6 | Falling Sky | 30-1 | 99-1 | 99-1 | 99-1 | $230.80 |
| 7 | Flashback | 15-1 | 22-1 | 15-1 | 12-1 | $26.40 |
| 8 | Frac Daddy | 50-1 | 99-1 | 82-1 | 68-1 | $139.00 |
| 9 | Goldencents | 20-1 | 10-1 | 15-1 | 20-1 | $43.40 |
| 10 | He’s Had Enough | 50-1 | 86-1 | 56-1 | 50-1 | $102.60 |
| 11 | Itsmyluckyday | 15-1 | 21-1 | 14-1 | 13-1 | $28.80 |
| 12 | Mylute | 30-1 | 99-1 | 99-1 | 99-1 | $249.20 |
| 13 | Normandy Invasion | 20-1 | 28-1 | 19-1 | 15-1 | $33.00 |
| 14 | Overanalyze | 15-1 | 67-1 | 44-1 | 33-1 | $69.20 |
| 15 | Oxbow | 20-1 | 52-1 | 32-1 | 26-1 | $54.80 |
| 16 | Revolutionary | 20-1 | 8-1 | 10-1 | 13-1 | $29.00 |
| 17 | Shanghai Bobby | 12-1 | 8-1 | 11-1 | 14-1 | $31.40 |
| 18 | Super Ninety Nine | 20-1 | 99-1 | 62-1 | 47-1 | $97.20 |
| 19 | Uncaptured | 20-1 | 96-1 | 57-1 | 40-1 | $82.40 |
| 20 | Verrazano | 15-1 | 7-1 | 9-1 | 11-1 | $24.00 |
| 21 | Violence | 12-1 | 9-1 | 12-1 | 13-1 | $28.60 |
| 22 | Vyjack (g) | 20-1 | 99-1 | 74-1 | 49-1 | $100.60 |
| 23 | Will Take Charge | 30-1 | 99-1 | 75-1 | 61-1 | $124.20 |
| 24 | All Others | 9-5 | 6-5 | 7-5 | 8-5 | $5.20 |
| (g) – gelding |
| Morning Line odds by Mike Battaglia |
| Total Wagering (final): $621,493 … Win: $481,632… Exacta: $139,861 |
